專題：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布降息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)！開啟降息周期

　　來(lái)源：華爾街見聞

　　“如果經(jīng)濟(jì)保持穩(wěn)健且通脹持續(xù)存在，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)改成更緩慢地降息；而如果勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)意外走弱，或者通脹下降速度快于預(yù)期，也準(zhǔn)備好激進(jìn)降息來(lái)回應(yīng)?！?/p>

　　9月18日周三，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾的記者會(huì)釋放出鷹派信號(hào)，美股在他講話之處一度繼續(xù)上漲，隨后發(fā)現(xiàn)苗頭不對(duì)而掉頭下挫轉(zhuǎn)跌，重回午盤前的低點(diǎn)，債市、黃金、匯市也180度大反轉(zhuǎn)。

　　這主要是因?yàn)轷U威爾稱美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)只是在“適度校準(zhǔn)政策立場(chǎng)”，沒(méi)有預(yù)先設(shè)定的政策路線，將繼續(xù)在逐次會(huì)議上根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)做出決定，未來(lái)降息速度可快、可慢甚至還會(huì)暫停。

　　比如他提到了幾個(gè)政策組合：如果經(jīng)濟(jì)保持穩(wěn)健且通脹持續(xù)存在，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)改成更緩慢地降息；而如果勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)意外走弱，或者通脹下降速度快于預(yù)期，也準(zhǔn)備好激進(jìn)降息來(lái)回應(yīng)。

　　整體來(lái)說(shuō)，鮑威爾意圖打消市場(chǎng)人士對(duì)“大幅降息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)成為新常態(tài)”的激進(jìn)押注。

　　以下為他在回答媒體提問(wèn)前的講稿全文（中英對(duì)照）：

　　Good afternoon， my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people．

　　下午好，我和我的同事們?nèi)匀粚Ｗ⒂趯?shí)現(xiàn)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的雙重目標(biāo)，即最大化就業(yè)和穩(wěn)定物價(jià)，以造福美國(guó)人民。

　　Our economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals． Over the past two years， the labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state． Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7% to an estimated 2.2% as of August， we‘re committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2% goal．

　　美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總體強(qiáng)勁，并已朝著我們的目標(biāo)取得了重大進(jìn)展。在過(guò)去兩年中，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)已從之前的過(guò)熱狀態(tài)降溫。截至8月，通貨膨脹率已從7%的峰值大幅下降至8月份估計(jì)的2.2%。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)致力于通過(guò)支持最大化就業(yè)和將通脹率恢復(fù)到2%的目標(biāo)來(lái)保持經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁。

　　Today， the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by a half percentage point． This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance， strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%． We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings． I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments．

　　今天，聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)決定降低政策約束程度，將政策利率下調(diào)50個(gè)基點(diǎn)。這一決定反映出我們?cè)絹?lái)越有信心，只要適當(dāng)校準(zhǔn)我們的政策立場(chǎng)，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁勢(shì)頭就能在溫和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和通脹持續(xù)下降至2%的背景下保持下去。我們還決定繼續(xù)縮表。在簡(jiǎn)要回顧經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況后，我將就貨幣政策發(fā)表更多看法。

　　Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace． GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first half of the year， and available data point to a roughly similar pace of growth this quarter． Growth of consumer spending has remained resilient， and investment in equipment and intangibles has picked up from its anemic pace last year． In the housing sector， investment fell back in the second quarter after rising strongly in the first． Improving supply conditions have supported resilient demand in the strong performance of the US economy over the past year． In our summary of economic projections， Committee participants generally expect GDP growth to remain solid， with a median projection of 2% over the next few years．

　　最近的指標(biāo)顯示，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)。今年上半年，GDP以2.2%的年率增長(zhǎng)，現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)顯示三季度的增長(zhǎng)速度大致相同。消費(fèi)支出增長(zhǎng)保持韌性，設(shè)備和無(wú)形資產(chǎn)投資已從去年的疲軟速度回升。在住房領(lǐng)域，投資在第一季度強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)后在第二季度回落。供應(yīng)條件的改善支撐了美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在過(guò)去一年強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)中的韌性需求側(cè)。在我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)摘要中，F(xiàn)OMC委員會(huì)參與者普遍預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)將保持穩(wěn)健，未來(lái)幾年的預(yù)測(cè)中值為2%。

　　In the labor market， conditions have continued to cool． Payroll job gains averaged 116，000 per month over the past three months， a notable step down from the pace seen earlier in the year． The unemployment rate has moved up， but remains low at 4.2%． Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year， and the jobs to workers gap has narrowed overall． A broad set of indicators suggest that conditions in the labor market are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019． ?The labor market is not a source of elevated in inflationary pressures． The median projection for the unemployment rate in the SEP is 4.4% at the end of this year， four tenths higher than projected in June．

　　勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)情況持續(xù)降溫。過(guò)去三個(gè)月，非農(nóng)就業(yè)崗位平均每月增加11.6萬(wàn)個(gè)，與今年早些時(shí)候的速度相比明顯放緩。失業(yè)率有所上升，但仍保持在4.2%的低位。名義工資增長(zhǎng)在過(guò)去一年有所放緩，職位空缺與求職人數(shù)之間的差距總體上有所縮小。一系列指標(biāo)表明，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的緊張狀況目前比2019年疫情爆發(fā)前有所緩解。勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)并不是通脹壓力高企的根源了。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)中對(duì)今年年底的失業(yè)率中值預(yù)測(cè)為4.4%，比6月份的預(yù)測(cè)高出0.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

　　Inflation has eased notably over the past two years， but remains above our longer run goal of 2%． Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.2% over the 12 months， ending in August， and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories， core PCE prices rose 2.7%． Longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored， as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households， businesses and forecasters， as well as measures from financial markets． The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 2.3% this year and 2.1% next year， somewhat lower than projected in June． Thereafter． The median projection is 2%．

　　過(guò)去兩年通脹率明顯下降，但仍高于我們2%的長(zhǎng)期目標(biāo)。根據(jù)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)和其他數(shù)據(jù)估計(jì)，截至8月的12個(gè)月內(nèi)，名義PCE價(jià)格將上漲2.2%，不包括波動(dòng)較大的食品和能源類別，核心PCE價(jià)格將上漲2.7%。長(zhǎng)期通脹預(yù)期似乎仍良好錨定，這反映在對(duì)家庭、企業(yè)和預(yù)測(cè)者的廣泛調(diào)查以及金融市場(chǎng)的指標(biāo)中。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)中對(duì)今年P(guān)CE總通脹率的預(yù)測(cè)中值為2.3%，明年為2.1%，略低于6月份的預(yù)測(cè)。2026年及以后的預(yù)測(cè)中值為2%。

　　Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people． For much of the past three years， inflation ran well above our 2% goal， and labor market conditions were extremely tight． Our primary focus had been on bringing down inflation， and appropriately so， we are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power， especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food， housing and transportation． Our restrictive monetary policy has helped restore the balance between aggregate supply and demand， easing inflationary pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations remain well anchored．

　　我們的貨幣政策行動(dòng)以促進(jìn)美國(guó)人民充分就業(yè)和物價(jià)穩(wěn)定為雙重使命。在過(guò)去三年的大部分時(shí)間里，通貨膨脹率遠(yuǎn)高于我們2%的目標(biāo)，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)狀況極其緊張。當(dāng)時(shí)我們的主要重點(diǎn)是降低通脹率，這也是理所應(yīng)當(dāng)?shù)?，我們敏銳地意識(shí)到高通脹會(huì)造成重大困難，因?yàn)樗鼤?huì)侵蝕購(gòu)買力，尤其是對(duì)于那些最無(wú)力承擔(dān)食品、住房和交通等必需品高成本的人來(lái)說(shuō)。我們的限制性貨幣政策有助于恢復(fù)總供給和總需求之間的平衡，緩解通脹壓力并確保通脹預(yù)期良好錨定。

　　Our patient approach over the past year has paid dividends． Inflation is now much closer to our objective， and we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% ． As inflation has declined， the labor market has cooled， the upside risks to inflation have diminished and the downside risks to employment have increased． We now see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance， and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate in light of the progress on inflation in the balance of risks．

　　過(guò)去一年，我們耐心的策略已獲得回報(bào)。通脹現(xiàn)在更接近我們的目標(biāo)，我們更加確信通脹正持續(xù)向2%邁進(jìn)。隨著通脹下降，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)降溫，通脹的上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)減少，就業(yè)的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加。我們現(xiàn)在認(rèn)為實(shí)現(xiàn)就業(yè)和通脹目標(biāo)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大致平衡，鑒于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平衡中通脹的進(jìn)展，我們關(guān)注雙重使命中各方目標(biāo)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　At today‘s meeting， the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a half percentage point to four and three quarters percent to 5%． This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market， and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance．

　　在今天的會(huì)議上，委員會(huì)決定將聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間下調(diào)50個(gè)基點(diǎn)，至4.75%到5%。這一政策立場(chǎng)的重新校準(zhǔn)將有助于保持經(jīng)濟(jì)和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁，并將繼續(xù)推動(dòng)通脹進(jìn)一步下降，同時(shí)我們正開始轉(zhuǎn)向更中性的立場(chǎng)。

　　We are not on any preset course． We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting． We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation． At the same time， reducing restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment． In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate， the Committee will carefully assess incoming data， the evolving outlook and the balance of risks．

　　我們沒(méi)有預(yù)先設(shè)定的政策路線，將繼續(xù)在每次會(huì)議上做出決定。我們知道，過(guò)快減少政策限制可能會(huì)阻礙通脹降溫的進(jìn)展。同時(shí)，過(guò)慢減少限制可能會(huì)過(guò)度削弱經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和就業(yè)。在考慮對(duì)聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間進(jìn)行額外調(diào)整時(shí)，委員會(huì)將仔細(xì)評(píng)估即將公布的數(shù)據(jù)、不斷變化的前景和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平衡。

　　In our Sep FOMC， participants wrote down their individual assessments of an ap0propriate path for the federal funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward， if the economy evolves as expected． The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.4% at the end of This year and 3.4% at the end of 2025． These median projections are lower than in June， consistent with the projections for lower inflation and higher unemployment as well as the changed balance of risks．

　　在我們9月份的FOMC會(huì)議上，參與官員們根據(jù)各自對(duì)未來(lái)最可能出現(xiàn)情況的判斷，寫下了他們對(duì)聯(lián)邦基金利率適當(dāng)路徑的評(píng)估，前提是經(jīng)濟(jì)按預(yù)期發(fā)展。中位數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)是，聯(lián)邦基金利率的適當(dāng)水平在今年年底為4.4%，2025年底為3.4%。這些中位數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)低于6月份的預(yù)測(cè)，與通脹下降、失業(yè)率上升以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平衡變化的預(yù)測(cè)一致。

　　These projections， however， are not a committee plan or decision． As the economy evolves， monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals． If the economy remains solid and inflation persists， we can dial back policy restraint more slowly． If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly， or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated， we are prepared to respond．

　　然而，這些預(yù)測(cè)并非委員會(huì)的計(jì)劃或決定。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，貨幣政策將進(jìn)行調(diào)整，以最好地促進(jìn)我們的最大化就業(yè)和價(jià)格穩(wěn)定目標(biāo)。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)保持穩(wěn)健且通脹持續(xù)存在，我們可以更緩慢地放松政策限制。如果勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)意外走弱，或者通脹下降速度快于預(yù)期，我們也準(zhǔn)備好做出回應(yīng)。

　　Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate． The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy， maximum employment and stable prices． We remain committed to supporting maximum employment， bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal， and keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored． Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans． We understand that our actions affect communities， families and businesses across the country． Everything we do is in service to our public mission． We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals．

　　政策已準(zhǔn)備好應(yīng)對(duì)我們?cè)诼男须p重使命時(shí)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)被賦予了兩個(gè)貨幣政策目標(biāo)：最大化就業(yè)和穩(wěn)定物價(jià)。我們?nèi)灾铝τ谥С殖浞志蜆I(yè)，將通脹率降至2%的目標(biāo)，并保持長(zhǎng)期通脹預(yù)期良好錨定。我們能否成功實(shí)現(xiàn)這些目標(biāo)對(duì)所有美國(guó)人來(lái)說(shuō)都至關(guān)重要。我們明白，我們的行動(dòng)會(huì)影響全美的社區(qū)、家庭和企業(yè)。我們所做的一切都是為了履行我們的公共使命。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將竭盡全力實(shí)現(xiàn)最大化就業(yè)和物價(jià)穩(wěn)定的目標(biāo)。